Nvidia Stock Price: Thiel Dumps, Analysts Debate – What We Know

Alright, let's dive into this. Word on the street is that Peter Thiel's hedge fund has lightened its load on Nvidia and Tesla. The immediate reaction? The usual market jitters, whispers of doom, and armchair analysts declaring the end of the AI and EV boom. But let’s take a breath and look at the actual data – because that’s what matters.

Thiel's Moves: A Data-Driven Look

First off, let’s be clear: "dumped" and "cut back" are doing a lot of heavy lifting in that headline. We don't have the exact figures on the fund's positions pre-sale, so we're dealing with directional information, not precise quantities. That said, Thiel’s fund isn't exactly known for knee-jerk reactions. These guys (and gals) are usually playing chess while the rest of us are playing checkers.

The Nvidia situation is particularly interesting given the hype around AI. Morningstar estimates Nvidia is calling for $3-$4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending per year by 2030. OpenAI has struck deals for $1.4 trillion. Nvidia hinted at $300 billion for calendar 2026. But even if those numbers are right, growth won't be linear, and that's where Thiel's move starts to make sense. The fund probably took some profits off the table, which is just good risk management, even if they have complete faith in the long-term AI narrative.

Plus, let's not forget the competition. While Nvidia currently dominates the AI GPU market (thanks to its CUDA software moat), companies like AMD are nipping at its heels, and tech giants like Google are developing their own custom chips (TPUs). Thiel's fund likely sees this diversification as a potential threat to Nvidia's future market share—though it's a long-term concern, not an immediate one.

As for Tesla, the EV market is facing headwinds. Demand isn't growing as quickly as predicted (supply chain issues, rising interest rates, and increased competition from legacy automakers). Tesla has also had to cut prices to maintain sales volume, and that's going to hurt margins. The stock has been on a tear for years, and profit-taking makes sense.

Reading Between the Lines

Here's the part of the analysis that I find genuinely interesting: Thiel's fund isn't just reacting to market conditions. They're making a bet on the future market conditions. They're saying, in effect, that the easy money in AI and EVs has already been made.

The Morningstar report nails it when it comes to Nvidia's valuation. With its 3-star rating, Morningstar believes Nvidia’s stock is fairly valued compared with their long-term fair value estimate of $225 per share, which implies an equity value of $5.1 trillion. Their fair value estimate implies a fiscal 2026 (ending January 2026 or effectively calendar 2025) price/adjusted earnings multiple of 50 times and a fiscal 2027 forward price/adjusted earnings multiple of 30 times.

Those are rich multiples, even for a company growing as fast as Nvidia. Thiel’s fund probably thinks that the market is overestimating Nvidia's growth potential and underestimating the risks. (A not-uncommon mistake, to be fair.)

Tesla, similarly, faces an uphill battle. The company needs to maintain its technological lead, ramp up production of new models (like the Cybertruck), and expand its charging infrastructure. All of that costs money, and Tesla's balance sheet isn't as pristine as it used to be. Competition from other EV makers is also intensifying, and Tesla can no longer rely on its brand to command a premium price.

So, What's the Real Story?

Thiel’s moves aren't a death knell for Nvidia or Tesla. They're a reality check. The AI and EV markets are still growing, but the low-hanging fruit is gone. Investors need to be more selective and more realistic about their expectations. This isn’t the end of the boom; it’s a shift in strategy.